Draft Master-Debating, Part IV


I won’t let Reid suck me into an endless back and forth over who compares best to whom, but I have to say: don’t write off Hinrich just yet. By every account, last year’s Bulls team was a phenomenal train wreck, almost to a man. Their record, their defensive performance, and their individual numbers were all complete aberrations from where everyone thought they were headed this time last year.

Just to stay focused on Hinrich, his PER by year since entering the league: 13.1, 15.3, 15.5, 17.0, 13.1.

Assuming he was healthy, that sudden plummet is practically unheard of for an NBA player who saw no significant change in his role on a team. That said, he slid right with the team, and didn’t step up to right the ship.

What these numbers mean, then, is purely a matter of interpretation. If you believe that Rose has the force of personality to take such a huge leadership role at such a young age (a la Chris Paul), then it makes sense to get an asset back for Hinrich and hand Rose the red captain’s cape.

On the flip side, there’s a decent chance that a less overbearing, less tyrannical, and less bald coach could get this roster playing like it’s 2006-07 all over again. And that team was widely considered to be one young dynamic post scorer away from making some serious noise. Plug Beasley into that Baby Bulls team and what happens?

So how to decide which scenario is correct? I think it all comes down: do you believe Rose’s leadership is more important than Beasley’s potential to “get it” in a couple years and become an absolute monster. You have to trust the Bulls on their internal evaluations that show they do believe that, but it’s surprising to me that they’re that desperate. Maybe so.

As for Beasley, there’s really no telling how his personality will develop. Shaq was goofy, too, but he worked hard enough to ride his his talent to 2.67 titles (thanks to the refs, the 2006 and 2002 titles are docked .67 championships each). Melo’s pedigree as an NCAA champion was second to none this decade, and now he’s staring at five straight first-round exits.

In short, if Rose’s season approached anything Chris Paul did in college, indicating a combination of fantastic leadership and once-in-a-decade talent, I would have no problem with him #1. But he didn’t quite got there. And that’s why you take the PF who just had the most dominant college season since … Tim Duncan?

*I feel like I have to mention that our speculation based on these surface numbers is a far, far cry from what NBA teams have access to, so we’re basically guessing the weather by just looking at the clouds.



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