A Tale of Two Kevins

Earlier this fantasy season, our friend Justin, winner of the 2007 Hancock draft lottery, announced Kevin Durant was on the block. Since Hancock is a keeper league populated mostly by UT alums, I figured he’d be overwhelmed with options. Nope. After waiting for weeks for better offers, Justin eventually traded me the struggling, “one-dimensional” Durant for Kevin Martin (Y! Rank like 22) and Jamaal “45 Games a Year” Tinsley.

For a couple months after the trade, Durant didn’t exactly tear it up. His shooting percentage was Jacque Vaughn-esque. He turned it over like Rafer Alson circa 2005. And he hit the offensive glass like Earl Boykins. Then came March. He stopped shooting 3’s and his FG% went through the roof. Assists were ever so slightly up, TO’s a bit down. He still needs to hit the offensive glass more. But I didn’t hear much about this new-found efficiency, outside of some local outlets (that article’s definitely worth a read if you’re a KD fan).

Strange thing is: when Durant started playing well, his stat line basically morphed into Martin’s. For now, Durant’s perception (disappointment; chucker) vs. Martin’s (budding superstar; efficiency God) has yet to follow suit.

A quick comparison:

• Kevin Martin: tall, lanky SG; resembles member of Kid ‘n Play
• Kevin Durant: tall, lanky, SG; often resembles college kid who just failed a final

• Martin’s season: 23.4 ppg | 61.0 TS% | 4.6 rbd | 2.1 ast | 2.0 TO
• Durant’s March: 21.8 ppg | 60.6 TS% | 4.1 rbd | 2.2 ast | 2.9 TO
• Durant’s season: 19.9 ppg | 51.9 TS% | 4.1 rbd | 2.0 ast |3.0 TO

It’s safe to say that if Durant could get his TO’s down, he’d find himself near Martin’s offensive rating of 120.9, good for 10th in the league.

The other big factor here, of course, is that I can’t believe people have been so hard on a 19-year-old who still lives with his mom, is stuck in the worst possible ownership/fan situation, and who is keyed on by every defenses he goes again. Martin is 25, in his fourth season, and surrounded by about 8 guys better than anyone the Sonics have.

But, hey, let’s give that ROY award to the 27-year-old role player averaging 10 and 6.

Just for a little perspective (and coincidentally also noted by this guy), Lebron’s rookie season, at age 18, with the caveat that no one this generation will compare with LBJ:

• Lebron: 20.9 ppg | 48.8 TS% | 5.5 rbd | 5.9 | 3.5 TO

Some final stat notes:

• While advanced numbers aren’t available in splits, both Durant and Lebron are sitting on an offensive rating of 99 for their rookie year.
• Rookie years are notoriously poor predictors of careers, too. Karl Malone, career ORtg of 113, slapped up an abysmal 93 his first season.
• Lebron’s rating is now up to 117 with a staggering usage rate above 33%.
• Martin’s usage rate this year is lower (26%) than both Durant and Lebron’s as rookies (around 28%). That slightly helps his efficiency.
• The best offensive player on Durant’s team prior to the Thomas/Wally trades: Kurt Thomas, ORtg = 115
• After the trades: Collison (ha ha!), ORtg = 108

All right, time to go watch Warriors-Mavs.