Looming Draft Question #1: What’s the deal with CDR?

Going into today’s draft, I’ve got some questions. For posterity, let’s record them, starting with Chris-Douglas Roberts projected selection in the Josh Howard/David Lee/Leandro Barbosa range at the end of the first.

From a fan’s perspective, we see one of the most creative, unvonventional, athletic scorers in all of college basketball, who came up huge on the big stage (minus a couple free throws).

But GM’s are hardly giving him a sniff, and Hollinger’s numbers, for what they’re worth, put him squarely in the could-go-either-way category. So what’s up? Does his athleticism not translate to an elite NBA level? Is there some flaw that scouts see and video confirms? Does he not have NBA range?

Stranger still, his stock never moved a tick even after he was player No. 1A on a team that probably should’ve won the title. Meanwhile, Rose’s similarly outstanding tournament catapulted him to the #1 pick; Brandon Rush’s solid showing bumped him to mid-first; and Mario Chalmer’s one big shot might have pushed him from the second round to the lottery. So why not Douglas-Roberts?

Doh.

Hollinger:

Sadly for Spurs fans, Tiago Splitter is one example of the dollar’s weakness keeping a prized player on the other side of the Atlantic. His projected NBA numbers are outstanding — 18.5 points and 10.3 boards, 54.4 percent shooting, 18.11 PER — and it’s unfortunate that such a wise draft choice has to be wasted because of a silly thing like currency fluctuations.

That 18.11 PER projection would put him higher than any prospect in this draft except for Beasley. Uuuugh.

UPDATE: Just noticed this other quote from that Hollinger article:

If I had to slot him into my board, I’d rate [Gallinari] sixth — combining my numbers with some subjective opinion, I have Michael Beasley and Kevin Love as the two best players, followed by Derrick Rose, Joe Alexander and Darrell Arthur. Gallinari, Jerryd Bayless, Marreese Speights, Brook Lopez and D.J. Augustin round out my top 10, with Mario Chalmers and Roy Hibbert the next two names on the board. Since there’s only about 12 guys in any draft who can play, those are the 12 I’m putting my money on.

No OJ Mayo? Not even as a solid role player? Yowzer, that’s some faith in your numbers.

Finally Some Mock Sanity

Chad Ford has just updated his mock draft to version 6.1, and it includes, for the first time, a pick I think the Spurs might actually make: Cal’s Ryan Anderson. A 6-10, sweet-shooting PF, Anderson fits nicely into the Spurs’ system. He’ll replace the ghost of Robert Horry, who I hear will be kept around as a special adviser on nut punches and dirty screens away from the play.

Many of the earliest editions of Ford’s mock draft, always taken with a grain of salt, had the Spurs taking a backup PG, which didn’t make any sense. Admittedly, for Spurs fans the only pick that makes sense is CDR. The Spurs need an athletic wingman like Reid needs to do some 10-lb. curls. Or maybe we’re blinded to CDR’s limitations because we’ve been pining for 10+ years for any rotation player, besides Manu, who can dunk with one hand.

Anyways, Jacque Vaughn is fine, and the Spurs have too many other glaring holes — now that the vets are shot and the Scola-Splitter picks backfired — that we can’t keep drafting for 3-4 years down the road.

In light of that, you can see how an Anderson pick differs from previous mock draft. To recap the progression of Spurs predictions:

Mock 1.0: Nicholas Batum, SF/PF, France, age 18 — I’m intrigued, but he won’t be ready for years.

Mock 2.0: Ante Tomic, C, Croatia — Another big project.

Mock 3.0: Mario Chalmers, PG, Kansas — See above.

Mock 4.0: Ty Lawson, PG, UNC — No way.

Mock 5.0: Chalmers

Mock 6.0: Tomic

Mock 6.1: Anderson

For Spurs fans, who pretend we’re OK with the defense winning championships, the best thing about Anderson is that he can flat-out score. He was only a few free throws from being a 50-40-90 guy last year, and his offensive rating in college last season was among the highest in the country, a shade above even Beasley (whose usage rate was higher) and a shade below Love (whose usage rate was lower). He won’t be an NBA star, but if he’s the Spurs pick, it’s going to be great having that firepower in reserve.

NBA Draft Master-Debating, Part 2

There’s much more to the debate than the numbers, but if Reid really wants to play the comparison game straight out the gate, let’s go there.

Glenn Robinson’s best year in college, as a junior, after which he was the unanimous No. 1 pick, but before much of his potential was destroyed by injuries and alcohol problems:

• 93-94 Purdue 30.3 PPG | 48.3 FG% | 38.0 3PT% | 79.6 FT%
  10.1 REB | 1.9 AST | 4.1 TO | 0.9 BLK | 1.6 STL

Michael Beasley, two years younger, after a single season of college basketball, but before his potential will be just decimated by too many Vinny Del Negro jokes:

• 07-08 K-State 26.2 PPG | 53.2 FG% | 37.9 3PT% | 77.4 FT%
  12.4 REB | 1.2 AST | 2.9 TO | 1.3 STL | 1.6 BLK

So even a cursory look at the basic stats shows Beasley ahead of Robinson. He contributes more efficiently and holds a little edge in the defensive categories, too. And with Robinson, there wasn’t even a debate about who went first.

Now to Derrick Rose, whose remarkable tourney performance led his team to a 2nd place finish, during which he showed he “can go 200 mph and is a smart point man, but his shot is unpredictable”:

• 07-08 Memphis 14.9 PPG | 47.7 FG% | 33.7 3PT% | 71.2 FT%
  4.5 REB | 4.7 AST | 2.7 TO | 1.2 STL | 0.4 BLK

Actually, though, the quote above isn’t about Rose. It was about a guy the Bulls might have on their radar, Kirk Hinrich, who also led his team to a NCAA Finals loss, captured Long’s heart with his hustle, but was nowhere near the conversation for the top pick:

• 02-03 Rock Chalk 17.3 PPG | 47.5 FG% | 40.6 3PT% | 70.4 FT%
  3.8 REB | 3.5 AST (4.7 for his college career) | 2.2 TO | 1.9 STL | 0.4 BLK

So the fact that Rose is even in the No. 1 conversation means either A) his intangibles really are off the charts, or 2) maybe we’re starting to overvalue those intangibles a bit.

If the measurables aren’t convincing, let me throw this out there: mimicking the success of other teams hardly guarantees wins, but it’s a popular NBA strategy. In the early part of this decade, teams trying to follow the Shaq model overpaid (i.e., overvalued) the Erik Dampiers and Adonal Foyles of the world — and are still overpaying them.

It’s possible that, now, we’re all a little too eager to invest in the next dynamic PG thanks to the non-title-winning-but-beautiful-to-watch success of Nash, CP3, and Deron Williams.

And that’s how you talk yourself out of picking the sure thing.

Pinche Spurs

Game 3 was an instant classic, a back-and-forth duel of offensive greatness — with Parker and Paul both going nuts — played at a run-and-gun pace with both teams making difficult shot after difficult shot.

Uh, does that really sound like a formula for Spurs’ success? I’m still worried that this Hornets team is flat-out better than this Spurs team (until at least next year, when we retool with youth). We’re like Boston: if our defense isn’t winning the game for us, we’re in serious trouble.

Anyways, to take the edge off, here’s Charles Barkley calling himself a dumbass.

Not to Forget About the Warriors

In case anyone’s as interested as I am about the Warriors next season, here are two interesting links:

1. What if the Warriors hadn’t traded Jason Richardson?

Tim Kawakami looks at the payroll if Bay Area favorite J-Rich were still around:

Add in a moderate new Ellis deal and the draft pick, and the Warriors’ commitment goes somewhere near $76M for 11 players. Renounce all you want, but the Warriors would still over the luxury tax–and bleeding talent thanks to the renouncing.

—Big conclusion: If the Warriors still had Richardson, they would be looking at a mini-New York Knicks-level problem.

As it is now, they’re under the cap with room to sign Monta and Biedrins, and they have a huge, $10 million trade exception to use on draft day.

2. What can the Warriors learn from the Hornets?

A guy named Adam Lauridsen writes a fan blog that is thorough in addressing why the Hornets PG-dominated offense works better than the Warriors PG-dominated offense.  Really, one of the more level-headed and smart things I’ve read from an NBA blogger in a while.

Dangit, Utah, You Let Me Down

I said you wouldn’t let this happen:

9:13 4-7 LAL Pau Gasol made Slam Dunk, Assist Derek Fisher
8:15 6-11 LAL Pau Gasol made Layup, Assist Derek Fisher
6:03 28-41 LAL Pau Gasol made Slam Dunk, Assist Kobe Bryant
8:14 49-66 LAL Pau Gasol made Layup, Assist Derek Fisher
2:13 64-73 LAL Pau Gasol made Layup, Assist Kobe Bryant
1:53 89-96 LAL Pau Gasol made Tip-in
1:36 90-98 LAL Pau Gasol made Layup, Assist Kobe Bryant
46.0 90-101 LAL Pau Gasol made Finger-roll Layup, Assist Kobe Bryant

I know it’s easier said than done, but make Kobe and Fisher finish in the lane! Better yet, make Pau work out of the post!

Stephen A.’s R.O.W. #5

UPDATE: Ha ha ha, from the same game, Long sends along… this:

The Daily Overreaction

Hawks coach Mike Woodson on Kevin Durant’s no-brainer as rookie of the year:

“It’s a travesty and it’s not right. He should have shared it, if not gotten it outright. … It’s what this kid has done for this team. … We haven’t had a power forward/center come in our league and do what he’s done [average a double-double] in I don’t know how many years,” Woodson said. “I mean, come on, man.”

Um, Mike, how many years ago would be 3. Emeka Okafor averaged 15 and 11 when he won ROY in 2004-05.

Hey, Horford’s great and had a great year, but I still don’t understand the ROY campaign for a role player (for now) playing alongside two All-Stars (Johnson, Bibby) and one future All-Star (Smith).

Anyways, he has been a blast to watch, and the way this Celtics team has (A) buckled under pressure, (B) gotten 95% of all 50/50 calls the last couple games, (C) still had the gall to whine and complain when exactly one call went against them, and (D) acted like they’re tough shit while trying (unsuccessfully) to bully a team with 30 wins less than them — well, screw those guys, even KG. I hope the Cavs or Magic make the finals.

BONUS: I can’t talk overreaction without linking to this guy’s video comparing the Pacman Jones trade to McCarthyism.

For the Record

I feel like I’m the only one among my Spurs-fans friends worried about this series with New Orleans. S.A. hangs their hat on defense but they struggle to match up with Chris Paul and David West. That’s why you have Bowen pulling that B.S. where he kneed Paul for no reason — a classic Bowen move when he’s a step slow. And David West’s numbers in four regular season games aren’t a fluke: 23 ppg on 58% shooting. Like another quick, face-up PF, Brandon Bass, West gives Duncan fits.

All that said, Pop will have something up his sleeve, and the Hornets somehow have to account for Ginobili. Should be good, but I think it’ll go longer than a lot of my friends expect.

POSTSCRIPT: For what it’s worth, I also think Utah beats the Lakers just because they’ll make Gasol post up one on one, where he’s terrible. No one seems to notice it, but whenever he has to work in the post on his own, he scores on like one out of every four possessions. No way Utah ever allows him to get uncontested dunks like Denver did.